No recession on K Street

Washington’s influence industry is humming steadily while the national economy is declining in what several economists predict will be the worst recession in 50 years.

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Cold

Cold

My hands shoved as deep as they will go into the pockets of my jeans

My breath frostily visible in the night air as I walk to the mailbox

To post a letter to a friend who lives in Las Vegas

Where last night it snowed three inches in the desert

Cold

The Future

Bush Frustrated By Mother's Constant Questioning Of His Plans Post-White House

DECEMBER 14, 2008 | ISSUE 44•51

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  The Legacy Of George W. BushJULY 22, 2008

WASHINGTON—With his departure from office only months away, President George W. Bush told reporters Monday that he is "fed up" with the way his mother, former first lady Barbara Bush, keeps pestering him about his post–Oval Office plans.

"Every time I see her it's 'have you thought about your future' this, and 'do you know where you're gonna put your presidential library' that," said Bush, who will be moving out of the White House on Jan. 20. "It's like, I'll just get a job as a CEO or board chairman or something. My God, quit worrying about it. I'm 62 years old, for Christ's sake!"

Bush, who has prepared for the end of his second term by learning to play guitar and visiting friends across the country, said he will be "just fine" once he gets out into the real world.

"I might not have the most experience, and I don't have a lot of practical skills, either, but I need to figure this out for myself," Bush said. "I mean, you don't see Cheney's parents riding him about this stuff."

Reached for comment at her summer home in Kennebunkport, ME, Barbara Bush claimed that she only wants what is best for the president, and hopes that he will become more responsible and self-reliant in years to come. Her son, she said, would never even have gotten his job at the White House had she and her husband not "pulled a few strings."

"He's spent the last five or six years fooling around and experimenting with this little Iraq thing he likes so much, but now it's time for him to get serious," Mrs. Bush said. "And if he thinks he's just going to come live with us when this is over, he's got another thing coming."

"Our baby [former Florida governor] Jeb [Bush] already took his old room anyway," she added.

The Hawk

On Saturday morning I was filling my bird feeders in the back yard.  In addition to the Goldfinch feeders and the "regular backyard" bird feeder (for the house finches, juncos, chickadees, etc), on my deck there is a peanut feeder that is regularly visited by Bluejays, Tufted Titmice, white and red bellied Nuthatches and one pesky squirrel.  The red bellied Nuthatch was especially cool because they don't show up every winter.  As I filled the peanut feeder I noticed a Tufted Titmouse in the tree beside the deck watching me.  I said "Good morning" and he gave me a look that said "Just fill up the feeder, deke.  I can smell them nuts!".  When I finished, I turned away from the feeder to put my feed away and heard a loud rustling of wings.  I turned back just in time to see a Red Tailed Hawk on my deck.  Red Tails are about 2 feet tall and they mean nothing but business.  As I confronted him, I was taken aback to the point that I stumbled (my wife says I swooned). He then flew up into my neighbors tree.  I called my wife out on the deck to see him and he flew higher onto the limb of another tree in the backyard of the next neighbor.  I didn't see if he had caught anything but my peanut feeder as of this writing remains untouched.  No Bluejays.  No Titmice. No nuthatches.  This is a feeder that I regularly need to fill every third day.

So, my question is, do they have hawks in Springfield Il.?  Does the governor eat peanuts? 

Dalai Lama Quote of the Week Everybody loves to talk about calm and peace, whether in a family, national, or international context. But without inner peace how can we make real peace? World peace through hatred and force is impossible. Even in the case of individuals, there is no possibility to feel happiness through anger. If in a difficult situation one becomes disturbed internally, overwhelmed by mental discomfort, then external things will not help at all. However, if despite external difficulties or problems, internally one's attitude is of love, warmth, and kind-heartedness, then problems can be faced and accepted. - - - - - - - - - The necessary foundation for world peace and the ultimate goal of any new international order is the elimination of violence at every level. For this reason the practice of non-violence surely suits us all. It simply requires determination, for by its very nature non-violent action requires patience. While the practice of non-violence is still something of an experiment on this planet, if it is successful it will open the way to a far more peaceful world in the next century. --from The Pocket Dalai Lama by the Dalai Lama, compiled and edited by Mary Craig

Free Tibet!

As many as 500 exiled Tibetan leaders are meeting in the Indian hill town of Dharmsala this week to discuss the future of their fight for their homeland.

The Dalai Lama wants the Tibetan people to decide strategy

It is a critical time, as they face up to the fact that their decades-long call for "meaningful autonomy" for Tibet has pretty much fallen on deaf ears in China.

Last month, Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, said he was losing hope that his deliberately moderate "middle path" policy with Beijing - seeking autonomy but not full independence - would yield results.

He has now called together Tibetans from around the world to spend the next six days discussing what they do next.

The "brain-storming session" could lead to a more hard-line strategy, Tsering Tashi, the Dalai Lama's representative in London, admits.

"It's possible they will push for outright independence," he told the BBC. "Tibetans have a right to independence. Our history is evidence of that."

But one aspect will not change, he stressed.

"The Tibetan struggle will not want to take a violent stance."

'Hot debate'

The meeting comes at a time of crisis for the exiled Tibetans and their leadership, says Tibetan analyst Robert Barnett, of Columbia University in New York.

China's aggressive response to any moves by the Tibetan cause has led to divisions and dissension among the exiles, he says.

We believe times will change; China will change  Tsering Panden Tibetan Youth Congress

"China realises it's on a winning streak. The longer it can go on being aggressive, the more the exiles split, the more it produces dissenters and the more the Dalai Lama is pressured to make compromises.

"The best outcome of this meeting, in the short term, is that they overcome the divisions. It will be quite impressive if they produce some unity."

Many Tibetans believe any criticism of the Dalai Lama's strategy is criticism of His Holiness himself.

This has made it difficult for a younger, more activist generation to have their calls for full independence taken seriously.

TIBET DIVIDE China says Tibet was always part of its territory Tibet enjoyed long periods of autonomy before 20th century In 1950, China launched a military assault Opposition to Chinese rule led to a bloody uprising in 1959 Tibet's spiritual leader the Dalai Lama fled to India Dalai Lama now advocates a "middle way" with Beijing, seeking autonomy but not full independence In depth: Guide to Tibet

The Dalai Lama realises it is time to have that debate, which is why he has removed himself from this meeting, Mr Barnett says.

Tsering Panden, head of the New York branch of the Tibetan Youth Congress, which is pushing for full independence, believes there will be a "hot debate" next week.

"There are some people who blindly believe everything the Dalai Lama says. It's very important during this special meeting to make them aware that the 'middle way' is not working. Then, I think they will agree with us," he said.

"Our strategy is to educate Tibetans around the world, to make them more politically aware and to make sure that our voice continues to be heard on the global stage," he said.

"We know this will take many years, possibly generations, but nothing lasts forever. We believe times will change; China will change. Already we see people in China who are sympathetic to our cause."

Successor

Another, perhaps unspoken, issue at the heart of this meeting is the question of a successor to the Dalai Lama.

The Tibetan leader is now 73 and has suffered bouts of ill health. In September, he was hospitalised for four days with stomach pain.

Last year he said he was considering breaking with centuries of tradition by choosing a successor, rather than awaiting rebirth which can take many years.

There is reason for his caution. When he picked a six-year-old boy in 1995 to be the Panchen Lama, the second most important figure in Tibetan Buddhist, Beijing rejected the choice and selected a pro-Chinese replacement.

Robert Barnett says Beijing believes the whole issue of Tibetan independence will disappear once the Dalai Lama dies, taking with him his skilled leadership and ability to court the West.

And, he says, there is a fear his death will lead to a disintegration of Tibetan society - with major unrest inside the region, and radical groups freed from the constraints of non-violence.

Tsering Panden hopes that a possible successor will emerge from next week's meeting.

"The Dalai Lama has a special place in the hearts of every Tibetan. If we can find someone who is endorsed by the Dalai Lama himself, then it will make the transition of leadership, when it happens, easier," he says.

Extrasolar Planets

ScienceFirst Pictures of Extrasolar Planets Taken
Jason Mick (Blog) - November 16, 2008 10:07 AM

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This image was snapped by Hubble of one of the four planets, which orbits the star Folmhaut 25 light-years from Earth.  (Source: NASA)

A second image of three planets orbitting the star HR 8799 were taken by the Gemini Observatory in Hawaii, which consists of two large 8-m reflecting telescopes.  (Source: NASA/Gemini Observatory)

This artist rendition represents how the HR 8799 worlds might look when viewed up close.  (Source: Gemini Observatory)

Beautiful new images reveal our first visual glimpse that other solar systems share planets just like ours does

One of the central themes both to science fiction and to real-life space progress was the drive to find and eventually travel to extrasolar plants.  In recent years, constantly improving computer processing and better imaging technology have allowed scientists to at last confirm what many have long fantasized -- there's a wealth of planets outside our solar system.

From water bearing planets to ultra-hot ones, and even with a few that resembledlarger versions of Earth, extrasolar planets thus far have shown great variety.  Most of these planets were detected using Doppler, or "wobble," technique to locate stars which were tugged at by the gravity of orbiting planets, leading to a wobble.  Thus far, infrared images from the NASA Spitzer Space Telescope and spectral analysis of composition had provided us of our clearest picture of these worlds.  However, the public has never seen a picture of an extrasolar planet -- until now.

The new images, developed by NASA and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are the first-ever pictures taken from the visible spectrum, glimpsed by the Gemini North and Keck telescopes on the Mauna Kea mountaintop in Hawaii.  British and American researchers snapped the first ever visible-light pictures of three extrasolar planets orbiting the star HR8799.  HR8799 is about 1.5 times the size of the sun, located 130 light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.  Observers can probably see this star through binoculars, scientists said.

To identify the planets, researchers compared images of the system, known to contain planets HF8799b, HF8799c, and HF8799d.  In each image faint objects were detected, and by comparing images from over the years, it was confirmed that these were the planets in their expected positions and that they orbit their star in a counterclockwise direction.

NASA's Hubble Space Telescope at about the same time picked up images of a fourth planet, somewhat unexpectedly.  The new planet, Fomalhaut b orbits the bright southern star Fomalhaut, part of the constellation Piscis Australis (Southern Fish) and is relatively massive -- about three times the size of Jupiter.  The planet orbits 10.7 billion miles from its home star and is approximately 25 light-years from Earth.  

Hubble astronomer Paul Kalas describes the challenge of obtaining the images, stating, "Our Hubble observations were incredibly demanding. Fomalhaut b is 1 billion times fainter than the star.  We began this program in 2001, and our persistence finally paid off."

NASA and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s use of direct-imaging to "see" planets marks a new era in astronomy.  Says Bruce Macintosh of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California, "After all these years, it's amazing to have a picture showing not one but three planets.  The discovery of the HR 8799 system is a crucial step on the road to the ultimate detection of another Earth."

While none of the planets were even remotely habitable, they are an important step towards imaging habitable worlds.  Their discovery brings the total of known extrasolar planets to 326.

The photographs were published in two research studies in the American Association for the Advancement of Science's journal Science Express.  They can be viewed here [1] [2].

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Do You Care?

Hopefully, we can grow up as a nation and stop preventing people from exercising their rights to a life partner.

Today in San Francisco, And Across the Country

by Josh Marshall

More here.

 

Photos courtesy of TPM Reader SS.

Let the Revisionist History Begin

And of course, Rush to judgement Limbuagh is already calling this the Obama recession.

Down the Republican Rabbit Hole

by Devilstower

Sun Nov 16, 2008 at 07:00:03 AM PST

History may be written by the winners, but that doesn't stop the losers from wasting a lot of ink in the attempt. This time, it's the GOP revanchists who are busy trying to come up with a reason -- any reason -- for the economic crisis that doesn't point directly to their conservative ideology and the greedy green horse of the Apocalypse, deregulation.

There are dozens of letters percolating through Republican chain mail, and a matching number of posts on right wing blogs, all trying to spread the same message: Democrats loaned money to black people!

Here's an example plucked from my own mailbox.

We're on the brink of an economic disaster and another Great Depression. This was not caused by Republicans. This was caused solely by Democrats.

In 1977 Democratic President Jimmy Carter passed the Community Reinvestment Act to provide housing to poor people. In the 1990s Bill Clinton had Attorney General Janet Reno threaten banks under red lining rules into giving loans to people who could not afford them. Then in the last 8 years, the leftist group ACORN, which has ties to Barack Obama, went to banks and threatened them to relax their rules again. Banks had to give loans to people who had no jobs or no identification.

You have to hand it to them. In terms of bringing together the maximum number of Republican demons -- Carter, Clinton, Reno, Obama -- with the smallest amount of connecting narrative, this is a keeper.

It's a satisfying bedtime story for the right. They can snooze and dream of revenge, when the wonders of True Conservatism will pave the streets with a mixture of gold and liberal bones. Unfortunately for them, it's not only simplistic, not only demonstrative of deep prejudice, it's also dead wrong.

The Community Reinvestment Act and other red lining laws weren't passed to force banks to make loans to African-Americans and other minorities. They were there to make the rules consistent. Previous to the passage of the CRA, minorities were often required to have better credit, and make larger down payments to get loans equivalent to those awarded whites. Nothing in these laws required that banks lower their lending standards, only that they be fair, consistent, and operate in a "safe and secure" way. There was no evidence then, and no evidence now, that minorities with the same initial credit rating as whites tend to default on their loans at any greater rate.

Want proof? Mortgage failure rate in 2000: 1%. 2001: 1%. 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006? One (1) as in ONE percent. But wait! Everything that Carter, Reno, and Clinton could do was already in there. The nefarious community organizers of ACORN had already grown their little oak trees of pressure. Carter's poor people had been sitting in their new homes so long, that many of those initial mortgages were paid off and gone.

What does legislation passed 31 years ago have to do with problems today? Nothing. Neither do tweaks Clinton made to that legislation in the mid 90s. The real culprits require a much shorter trip down memory lane.

Subprime mortgages (and all mortgages, really) are a fraction of the current problem. The bailout would have been enough to buy out every subprime mortgage in foreclosure across the country. In fact, it was enough to do that several times over. So why not do that?

The reason is that the purpose of the bailout (at least as Treasury Secretary Paulson sees it) isn't to stop mortgage foreclosures, but to save the banks. And the banks have some self-inflicted problems that make those mortgages an afterthought.

For example, the wonderful credit default swap. In essence, credit default swaps are (or were) nothing but insurance policies for loans. And yet in 2007 the total number of credit default swaps traded far exceeded the value of all loans. In fact, it may have touched $70 trillion dollars, which puts it above the gross domestic product of the entire planet.

How is that possible? Come with me back to the primitive world of 1999, when SUVs ruled the roads and cell phones did not yet shoot video, and let's see how this clumsy bit of fiscal jargon conquered the planet.

The Evolution of the Credit Default Swap

Stage 1 (Perturbo mutans) 
You have just made a loan to someone, and now you're nervous that this scoundrel might not pay. What to do, what to do? Ah, but you need not worry! I happen to have assets on hand that can easily cover your petty loan. What's more, for a small monthly fee, I'll be happy to provide you with insurance of a sort. Should the person to whom you've extended a loan prove unreliable, I'll shoulder the burden -- so long as you keep up the payments. Let's call this insurance a... credit default swap.

In 1999, these credit default swaps already existed, but they were a niche product. Only a fraction of banks employed them and then only on a fraction of loans. Without some knock to the system, swaps would probably have remained a relatively small player.

Stage 2 (Perturbo furtiva) 
Knock, knock. In 2000 Republican economic hero, Phil Gramm, with the assistance of a small legion of lobbyists, created the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. Along with ushering in the Enron disaster, this bill provided the one thing that credit default swaps needed to grow and mutate -- invisibility. Thanks to the CFMA, not only were credit default swaps unregulated, they were impossible to observe directly. Like black holes in deep space, you could only spot swaps by looking at how other things acted nearby.

So, now you've made a loan to someone, and you're worried about it. I want to offer you a credit default swap so I can collect the fee. Trouble is, I don't have the assets to cover your loan. So how can I... hold on, credit default swaps are so unregulated that no one says I actually have to be able to deliver on my promise.  Hey, over here! Have I got a swap for you, and it's a bargain.

So now the CDS is a means of moving the risk, but the risk is still as high (or higher, since the original lender might have been better able to cover the loss). In fact, credit default swaps have gone from being a risk mitigator, to a risk magnifier.

Stage 3 (Peturbo veloxicresco) 
You have a loan you're worried about. That's good, because lots of people want to offer you swaps. After all, you don't have to have any assets to issue a swap. The investment bank of First Me and The Change I Found In the Couch Cushions can offer swaps for all the debt at Morgan Stanley, and that's okay. I get free money for issuing the swaps, and the swaps have value on the books. So both me and my pal Mr. Stanley have values that are inflating faster than a tick in a blood bank.

Now you can get a swap for any loan you want, and with all the competition, the cost of these swaps is lower, and lower, and lower. Here's an idea: why not go out and make more loans, riskier loans. Why not offer anyone you can collar on the street a loan, no matter whether or not they can pay it off, not because some 30 year old law makes you do it, but because your friend the credit swap makes it perfectly safe!

So many people are offering these things that you could give a loan to Saddam while the bombs are falling without a care in the world. You can always get a swap.

Stage 4 (Fatum casus) 
I have a swap. I really, really want someone to take my swap. Only even with every incentive I can offer, not enough people are loaning. Sure, there's a record amount of hypothetical money sloshing around the system thanks to me and my swaps, but it's still not enough. So what can I...

Wait a second. Swaps are unregulated. No one says I have to have enough resources to cover the swap, and even better, no one says I have to offer the swap to the person who actually made the loan! Hey buddy, see that loan over there? You may think it's iffy, but I think it'll hold up. In fact, I'm so sure it will, I'll sell you a credit default swap on it that pays off if it fails. You don't make the loan, you don't have to pay off on the loan, you don't have anything to do with the loan. You just pay me the fee. And if that guy loses his money, you collect. How sweet is that!

This mutation is enormous (see how the genera changed up there?). At this point, credit default swaps have become completely divorced from the original function. A single loan can be covered by multiple swaps. There's a complicated fiscal term for this. It's called gambling, and at this stage, that's all that remains of those little "insurance" policies. They no longer protect anyone from anything, they just offer a chance to place enormous overlapping side bets on everything.

Stage 5 (Fatum insanus) 
I have swaps! Get your swaps here! Want a swap on a loan you made? Okay. Want to bet that the bozo in the next cube is making bad loans? We can do that. Want to bundle up some loans and bet on those? Buddy we can do better than that. I can give you a swap on the value of other swaps. Now we're really in business.

Who owns the original loan? Don't know, don't care. Who's actually responsible for the money if that loan should fail? Ehhh, can't really say. Has anyone noticed that a single bad loan could cause a cascade of swap calls that bounce around the system like a rocket-power pinball? Shut up.

Isn't anyone worried that this is the most massive house of cards ever constructed in human history? Lookit, what part of "we took 120 billion in bonuses out of this place in the last five years" are you missing?

Stage 6 (Fatum exicelebritas) 
Hey, my loan went bad. Can I have my money from that swap, please?

Stage 7 (Fatum cerus) 
Oh shit.

Now that people are paying attention, it turns out that the value of most credit default swaps is not just bupkis, it's Bupkis Plus. More computer power went into modeling these things than has been invested in predicting climate change, but everyone overlooked the giant "and then a miracle occurs" at the center of all the equations that allowed credit default swaps to generate revenue ex nihilo.

Trying to blame the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act for the current fiscal crisis is like blaming a spot on your windshield for engine failure while ignoring the gaping wound in you head gasket. Republicans are scribbling hard to create their new version of reality, and you never know what's going to sell. After all, people bought a "Book of Virtues" authored by Bill Bennet.

But in this case, even the Mock Turtle and the March Hare think the GOP line is too outlandish.

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From the Daily Kos

Supreme Court Checks Price Tag for Supreme Court

by Devilstower

Sat Nov 15, 2008 at 01:53:28 PM PST

There's no doubt that if you're charged with a crime, it's good to be rich. It's nice to be innocent, but really, would you rather be guilty as sin and packing a squad of high-powered private attorneys, or pure as driven snow and represented by a massively overworked public defender?

But what do you do when even the best attorneys can't help? What about when you're facing a $20 million dollar fine for pollution.

The fine was part of a $30 million settlement with the government over accusations that[Massey Energy Company] violated water pollution permit limits more than 4,500 times from January 2000 to December 2006. The government said Massey had polluted and clogged hundreds of streams and rivers in Kentucky and West Virginia by releasing millions of pounds of metals, sediments and acid mine drainage into their waterways.

What if you've already faced millions in fines for getting your workers killed?

The federal Mine Safety and Health Administration has levied a $1.5 million fine against the Massey Energy Company for 25 violations that contributed to the death of two West Virginia coal miners killed in a fire in January 2006.

Then a jury goes and awards a $50 million judgement against you, just becuse you totally violated a contract.

The Massey Energy Company, a coal producer, was ordered by a West Virginia jury to pay $50 million in damages to the closely held Harman Mining Corporation. Harman's owner, Hugh Caperton, accused Massey of driving his company out of business.

If you're thinking that a criminal record approaching 5,000 counts and a history of screwing business partners might be something that even TV lawyers couldn't handle, you're just not thinking big enough. Why stop at hiring good lawyers when you can just buy the state supreme court?

In fact, if you're Don Blankenship, the CEO of Massey Energy, you can't stop at buying just one supreme court judge. After all, the first one might not get caught.

A justice of the West Virginia Supreme Court and a powerful coal-company executive met in Monte Carlo in the summer of 2006, sharing several meals even as the executive’s companies were appealing a $50 million jury verdict against them to the court.

So even if that judge voted for you, which he did, you might still end up facing the case again without him.

Chief Justice Elliott E. Maynard withdrew from the case last week after the publication of photographs of him and Massey's chief executive, Don L. Blankenship, vacationing in Monte Carlo.

Still, Donnie had a backup judge.

The chief justice, Elliott E. Maynard, and a second justice disqualified themselves from the rehearing and were replaced by appeals court judges

Wait a second, we're not done.

the vote was again 3-to-2 in favor of Massey. A third justice, Brent D. Benjamin, who was elected to the court with the help of more than $3 million from Mr. Blankenship, refused to recuse himself.

Ah, sweet justice! You'll be happy to know that, given a second chance, Justice Benjamin still didn't see anything wrong with presiding on a case for his sugar daddy. You have to admit, he has a point. After all, if you're on the West Virginia Supreme Court, and you start recusing yourself from every case involving Don Blankenship, you really might as well go home.

But as of yesterday, the United States Supreme Court has decided to take a look at the case.

The appeal asked the Supreme Court to consider whether a West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals justice should have disqualified himself from deciding the case because Massey's chief executive officer had spent $3 million to help him get elected to the court.

Justice Brent Benjamin twice was in the majority in 3-2 decisions that overturned the $50 million jury verdict against Massey.

Should the US Supreme Court overturn the West Virginia verdict, it'll show that you can't evade justice by packing the bench with your bought and paid for cronies. If they let the Blankenship court's decision stand, don't get too excited. I'm sure other courts will institute an orderly bidding process for buying their votes.

While we're waiting for a decision, Blankenship can stay busy with his hobby of buying the state for Republians.

Mr. Blankenship, the chief executive of the state’s largest coal producer, Massey Energy, has promised to spend "whatever it takes" to help win a majority in the State Legislature for the long-beleaguered Republican Party in a state that is a Democratic and labor stronghold.

In a state where candidates who win typically spend less than $20,000, Mr. Blankenship has poured more than $6 million into political initiatives and local races over the past three years. Mr. Blankenship has spent at least $700,000 in his current effort to oust Democrats, and the state is awash with lawn signs, highway billboards, radio advertisements and field organizers paid for by him.

Or get back to work as the top practitioner of mountaintop removal.

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